Start to the NHL season is crucial for players on the Olympic bubble

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During the 4 Nations Face-Off earlier this year, Hockey Canada officials figured maybe three-quarters of the championship Canadian team would also play for Olympic gold at the Winter Games in February.

But with two additional spots available, the first few months of the NHL season are crucial to players on the Olympic bubble hoping to make the team and travel to Milan.

“Some players are going to rise up,” Team Canada general manager Doug Armstrong said. “There’s a lot of guys that didn’t make that team that are going to want to have a great October, November, December.”

Armstrong, U.S. GM Bill Guerin and the other federations have until Dec. 31 to submit provisional rosters of 22 skaters and three goaltenders. The so-called long lists of 45 skaters and five goaltenders to choose from is due Oct. 15.

Expect some serious variation for the Americans in Milan, looking to win Olympic gold for the first time since the “Miracle on Ice" in 1980.

“We can’t really run it back with the same team — we’ve got to see who’s playing well,” Guerin said. “Other guys are going to play their way on to the team. We had a bunch of guys that showed up for the world championships and produced our first gold medal there in 90-something years, and there are guys that have put themselves in a much better spot because of that. We just really have to start from scratch again and rebuild the team.”

Some candidates on the edge:

Keller was not just one of the players in his prime who went to worlds and helped deliver the first U.S. title there since 1933. Utah's captain also wore the “C” and was a point-a-game producer. Getting left off the 4 Nations team fueled the 27-year-old center.

“It definitely motivated me, for sure, and I wasn’t going to just let it harp on me and have a bad rest of my season,” Keller said. “I think it did the opposite for me.”

Keller had 30 points in 26 games after the season resumed, followed by his success at worlds. Barring injury, he's a good bet to play at the Olympics.

Injuries didn't give Thomas a realistic shot to play for Canada at the 4 Nations, then he showed Armstrong — also his GM with St. Louis — what he could do when healthy. Thomas was the NHL's top scorer after the break with 40 points, though he's not satisfied with that success.

“I feel like most people look for people doing well, teams doing well — winners, and so I think that’s how you focus on it,” Thomas said. “Get your team off to a really good start, win a lot of games and put yourself in a good spot in the standings, and I think that should speak enough on your impact for the game.”

Thomas, 26, has an inside track to Milan but does not want it to be because he plays for Armstrong with the Blues.

“He’s got a job to do,” Thomas said. "He can’t pick favorites. His name's on the line at the end of the day, so he’s got to pick the best team.”

Thompson was also on the U.S. world championship-winning team after he and Buffalo missed the playoffs. He had nine points, and his size at 6-foot-6 and 220 pounds makes him an ideal fit as Guerin and Co. build the team.

“I did feel like I should have been on the 4 Nations team,” Thompson said. “That gave me a bit of a chip on the shoulder the second half of the season and the summer of training and just kind of adds one more thing on your plate that you’re playing for.”

Thompson has never played in the NHL playoffs because the Sabres have the longest active drought at 14 seasons. Given management wanting to see how guys on the bubble handle pressure situations, going to worlds could give Thompson's case a huge boost.

A couple of years ago, 2023 No. 1 pick Connor Bedard looked as though he might be the youngest player for Canada at the 2026 Games. Bedard would need to light the league on fire with Chicago out of the gate to get back in that discussion.

San Jose's Macklin Celebrini, on the other hand, is another story. The 2024 No. 1 pick accepted Canada's invite to worlds, played alongside Sidney Crosby and put himself right in the mix.

“I thought Celebrini had a fabulous tournament there coming in as a rookie, an 18-year-old,” Armstrong said.

It helps to have the seal of approval from Canada's likely captain, who scored the golden goal in 2010 and was a big part of repeating as Olympic champs in 2014.

“I skated a little bit with him in the summer, too, in Halifax, and I want to say he’s even better than he was at worlds even over the couple months,” Crosby said. “I know he’s working hard. I’m sure this is something that’s on his radar, but yeah, I loved playing with him. I think that he’s just going to get better and better."

Armstrong singled out Montreal's Nick Suzuki and Washington's Tom Wilson as other players not at the 4 Nations who played well in the second half last season. Wilson would give Canada a big, physical puck retriever with wining experience, while Suzuki would probably have to stand out above the crowd to be considered.

Jason Robertson and Cole Caufield are intriguing talents up front for the U.S., figuring Chris Kreider and Brock Nelson are probably not going to make it. Patrick Kane also has an outside chance as an elder statesman if he gets off to a strong start.

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