AP Decision Notes: What to expect in Georgia's primaries

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WASHINGTON (AP) — Voting concludes in the swing state of Georgia on Tuesday in competitive primaries for governor and a U.S. Senate seat that could decide control of the closely divided chamber.

The nomination contests will set the stage for two of November’s marquee races that could have long-lasting political implications far beyond the state’s borders.

Georgia voters will also pick nominees for U.S. House, the state Legislature and a long list of statewide offices, such as lieutenant governor, secretary of state, and state attorney general. Also on the ballot are nonpartisan judicial races, including two competitive contests for state Supreme Court.

Eight Republicans are vying for the nomination to succeed term-limited GOP Gov. Brian Kemp, including state Attorney General Chris Carr, health care executive Rick Jackson, Lt. Gov. Burt Jones and Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger.

Jones has President Donald Trump’s endorsement, but Jackson is testing the value of the president’s backing by pouring more than $83 million into the race from his personal fortune.

The Democratic field includes former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms, former Republican Lt. Gov. Geoff Duncan, former state Sen. Jason Esteves, state Rep. Derrick Jackson, and former state labor commissioner and former DeKalb County CEO Mike Thurmond.

If no candidate receives a majority of the primary vote, the top two vote-getters will advance to a June 16 runoff.

Whoever succeeds Kemp will be in office in 2028 and could emerge as a key figure in the next presidential election if Georgia remains as competitive as it was in 2020 and 2024. Trump blamed Kemp for refusing to help overturn his 2020 loss in Georgia to Democrat Joe Biden, but the two reached a détente in 2024 ahead of Trump’s reelection victory.

In the U.S. Senate race, five Republicans are running to take on first-term Democratic U.S. Sen. Jon Ossoff, who is unopposed for renomination. The field includes U.S. Reps. Buddy Carter and Mike Collins, as well as former University of Tennessee football coach Derek Dooley, who has Kemp's endorsement.

Carter has outraised and outspent the rest of the GOP field, but he, Collins and Dooley began the month on roughly equal financial footing with campaign war chests of about $1.7 million each.

An Ossoff reelection victory in November is critical to Democratic hopes of retaking the chamber.

The Atlanta-area counties of Fulton, Gwinnett, Cobb and DeKalb are the most populous in the state and play important roles in both Democratic and Republican statewide primaries. Fulton and DeKalb tend to be more influential in Democratic primaries, while Cobb and Gwinnett tend to contribute a larger share of the total vote in Republican contests. Cherokee and Forsyth counties are also in the greater Atlanta metro area and tend to be bigger players in Republican primaries than in Democratic ones. The two counties went heavily for Trump in all three of his presidential campaigns.

Here are some of the key facts about the election and data points the AP Decision Team will monitor as the votes are tallied:

Polls close at 7 p.m. ET.

The AP will provide vote results and declare winners in contested primaries for U.S. Senate, U.S. House, governor, lieutenant governor, secretary of state, attorney general, agriculture commissioner, insurance commissioner, state school superintendent, labor commissioner, Public Service Commission, state Senate and state House, as well as nonpartisan elections for state Supreme Court and Court of Appeals.

Any registered voter may participate in either primary. Voters in Georgia do not register by party.

As of Thursday, there were about 8.1 million registered voters in Georgia.

In 2022, roughly 1.2 million votes were cast in the Republican primaries for governor and U.S. Senate, while about 730,000 votes were cast in the Democratic primaries.

About 51% of the 2022 Democratic primary vote and about 41% of the Republican primary vote was cast before primary day.

As of Thursday, about 696,000 ballots had already been cast in Tuesday’s election, including about 381,000 in the Democratic primary and about 305,000 in the Republican primary.

Counties release results from mail and early in-person at the start of the night. More than half the counties tend to release all or almost all their mail and early in-person results in the first vote update.

In the 2022 primary, the AP first reported results at 7:13 p.m. ET, or 13 minutes after polls closed. The last vote update of the night was at 3:29 a.m. ET with about 99% of total votes counted.

The Associated Press does not make projections and will declare a winner only when it’s determined there is no scenario that would allow a trailing candidate to close the gap. If a race has not been called, the AP will continue to cover any newsworthy developments, such as candidate concessions or declarations of victory. In doing so, the AP will make clear that it has not yet declared a winner and explain why.

There is no automatic recount provision in Georgia, but a losing candidate may request a recount if the margin is less than or equal to 0.5% of the total vote. The AP may declare a winner in a race that is subject to a recount if it can determine the lead is too large for a recount or legal challenge to change the outcome.

As of Tuesday, there will be 28 days until the June 16 primary runoff and 168 days until the 2026 midterm elections.

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Follow the AP’s coverage of the 2026 election at https://apnews.com/projects/elections-2026/.